In an election year where more people will head to the polls than ever before, the influence of generative AI and large language models (LLMs) on politics cannot be overlooked. As we delve into this new era, it's crucial to understand how these emerging technologies can shape the democratic process, for better or for worse. Here's a brain dump on the key aspects to consider:
Marginal Additional Lift
Generative AI offers a significant boost to smaller political actors. This phenomenon, known as marginal additional lift, implies that AI can yield more substantial benefits for smaller entities compared to larger ones. This means that individuals or small groups with limited resources can now produce extensive content that would previously have required a sizeable team. Political campaigns, press releases, and advertising copy for platforms like Facebook can be generated swiftly and effectively. This is a boon for smaller parties or single-issue groups aiming to make an impact.
However, this ease of content generation also poses risks. Bad actors can exploit AI to create and disseminate vast amounts of misleading or harmful information, potentially skewing election outcomes. The same technology that empowers grassroots movements can also be used to propagate disinformation on a large scale.
The Asymmetrical Force of Money
While AI levels the playing field to some extent, money remains a powerful force in politics. Large political players can leverage their financial resources to dominate the landscape. They can produce and disseminate a plethora of ads, ensuring their messages reach a wide audience. The efficiency of message delivery is still heavily influenced by budget, despite the capabilities of AI.
Moreover, AI-generated content tends to be more generic. In contrast, well-funded campaigns can afford to create highly tailored, strategically crafted messages that resonate more deeply with specific audiences. This can enhance the effectiveness of both positive campaigning and the spread of misinformation.
Social Change and AI
AI is not just a technological tool; it represents a significant social shift. Its adoption and impact during elections worldwide—from India to the UK and the US—will be fascinating to observe. Each democracy will utilise and be influenced by AI in unique ways. Understanding the role AI plays in a post-truth society is crucial.
Conspiracy Theories and Misinformation
AI has the potential to both combat and exacerbate conspiracy theories. On one hand, it can be used to fact-check and debunk myths efficiently. On the other hand, it can generate large volumes of plausible yet fictitious information, reinforcing conspiracy theories. Deep fakes and realistic but fake images are prime examples of this dual-edged sword.
We may see an "arms race" where different AI tools are pitted against each other—one generating falsehoods, another debunking them. This dynamic could become a significant aspect of the information warfare landscape.
Filter Bubbles and Disinformation
AI-driven algorithms are increasingly adept at tailoring content to individual preferences. While this enhances user experience, it also risks creating sophisticated filter bubbles. People may be exposed to information that reinforces their existing beliefs, leading to a fragmented societal consensus. This erosion of shared reality undermines the democratic process, which relies on a common understanding of facts.
The Rapid Pace of Change
The current landscape of political technology is often described as a "Cambrian explosion" or a "wild west." Rapid advancements in AI and generative technologies are transforming political campaigns and voter engagement. Predictive analytics and data analysis are becoming more sophisticated, offering new ways to mobilise voters and target specific demographics.
However, this also means that misinformation and conspiracy theories can spread more quickly and convincingly. The challenge lies in balancing the benefits of technological innovation with the need to maintain a healthy democratic process.
As we navigate this election year, it's clear that AI and generative technology will play pivotal roles. The potential for both positive and negative impacts is immense. While smaller actors gain unprecedented tools for participation, the risk of disinformation and polarisation grows.
It's a critical moment for understanding how AI affects democracy. By observing and learning from this year's elections, we can develop the safeguards necessary to protect the democratic process. Ensuring that AI is used to promote inclusion, accuracy, and fairness will be key to preserving the integrity of our political systems.
